Bitcoin's worst October since 2014

It is also the first time since 2011 and 2012 that October closed lower two years running. The year-to-date figure is now about -11.2%.

How the month unravelled

The order of events explains the shape of the chart.

1. A hotter-than-expected US inflation print pushed the price back below $80,000 early in the month. A mid-month rebound stalled near $85,000.
2. On October 29 a large exchange reported a hot-wallet breach. The scare triggered more than $1.5 billion of liquidations in 24 hours, most of them leveraged longs.
3. On October 30, US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded about $643 million of net outflows, the largest single-day withdrawal of the month. Price hit a six-week low between $76,100 and $76,400.

Each step fed the next. The inflation data removed buyers, the breach removed leverage, and the ETF redemptions removed spot demand right when it was needed.

Why ETF outflows hit spot price

A spot bitcoin ETF holds real coins. When investors sell ETF shares in size, authorized participants redeem those shares and sell the underlying bitcoin to match. So a heavy outflow day is not just a sentiment number. It turns into actual selling in the spot market, and in a stressed market it adds to the move rather than cushioning it.

Where October ranks

The three worst Octobers on record:

• 2011: -34.7%
• 2014: -12.6%
• 2012: -11.1%

2026 slots in just behind them. Context matters, though. Between 2010 and 2025, eleven of sixteen Octobers were positive. A bad October is unusual, not unheard of.

The levels traders are watching

These are reference points where liquidity has gathered, not forecasts:

• Above $87,000: the early October high.
• About $85,000: where the mid-month rebound failed.
• About $83,500: the October open. Getting back here erases the monthly loss.
• About $81,900: the 50-day moving average, now acting as resistance.
• $80,000: the round number lost after the inflation data. Reclaiming it is the first sign of repair.
• $76,000 to $76,500: the October 30 low zone and immediate support.
• $75,000: the next horizontal level below.
• About $73,125: the 200-day moving average, the long-term trend line.

The space between the 50-day and 200-day averages is the current corridor. Trading below the 50-day says medium-term momentum is damaged; holding above the 200-day keeps the longer structure intact.

Does November's history help?

Bitcoin finished higher in ten of sixteen Novembers from 2010 to 2025, with a median gain of roughly 10%. The average is much higher, but it is distorted by the huge 2013 rally, so the median is the fairer figure. Seasonality is a weak signal next to live risks, though. Sort what is in front of you by how certain it is:

• Confirmed: the breach, the $1.5 billion liquidation wave, and the ETF outflow already happened and thinned the order books.
• Emerging: more consecutive ETF outflow days, or friction on exchange withdrawals, would test the $76,000 area.
• Scenario: strong inflation or jobs data that keeps rates high while price is below $80,000 could open a path to $75,000 and then the 200-day average.
• Speculative: rumors of new wallet tokens or airdrops have no official schedule behind them, so they do not belong in a plan.

On the perp board

Funding on the majors has stayed close to neutral, which suggests the liquidation wave cleared out much of the crowded long positioning. That reset is what you would want to see before any durable recovery in $BTC.USDT. Altcoins such as $ETH.USDT, $SOL.USDT, $XRP.USDT and $DOGE.USDT tend to move with larger swings in both directions while bitcoin sits between its two key averages.

A plan for the month

• Treat $80,000 as the line that changes the story.
• Respect the $76,000 zone. A clean break opens the lower levels quickly.
• Watch ETF flows daily, because they convert straight into spot selling or buying.
• Keep leverage lower than usual until the corridor resolves.

A bad October does not doom November. It does mean the month starts with less leverage, less depth, and a clear set of levels to prove itself against.