The Fed held, two voted to hike, and BTC sat on $80,000.

MEXC weekly lays out the two levels that decide the next move

By Alexander F., Portfolio Manager @ LiquidityFlow.ioUpdated 2026-10-31

Key takeaway

MEXC's weekly macro and trading report covers the Oct 28 Fed meeting and what it meant for BTC and ETH. The data runs through Oct 28, so read the levels below as the report's map rather than live calls. The image is the official MEXC Learn cover for the report.

Official MEXC Learn cover art with stacked blue and silver 3D chat bubbles carrying a checkmark, bar chart, lightning bolt and pie chart icons. — Image: MEXC official article image, as used in the original post.

The macro chain, as the report draws it

High oil (WTI about $101.7, Brent above $110) -> sticky inflation expectations -> December hike odds up from 78% to 86% -> 10-year yield at 5.04% -> tighter dollar liquidity -> BTC under pressure, with ETH and SOL falling harder.

The Fed held at 3.75 to 4.00%, but the vote was 10-2 and both dissenters wanted a hike. The decision itself was no surprise. The pressure came from expectations for the next meeting.

What price did

BTC spent the week around $80,000. Over the Oct 24 to 25 weekend it dipped to about $79,220, which set off roughly $815M in liquidations. Seven-day moves: ETH -5.1%, SOL -4.8%, BTC -3.4%.

BTC levels in the report

Resistance: $81,400 (the 9-day average, which needs three daily closes above it), then $82,000 to $82,500, then $84,200
Support: $80,000, then $78,000 and $76,000, with strong support at $75,800
Short-term holder cost basis: about $76,500

ETH levels

Resistance: $2,400, then $2,530
Support: $2,300, with the 200-day SMA at $2,160
RSI14 around 37.5, with price below the 20- and 50-day averages

Flows vs on-chain

ETFs swung from +$524.8M on Oct 21 to -$774M across Oct 22 to 23, then +$110M on Oct 26, leaving about -$138M net for Oct 21 to 27. On-chain told a different story: Santiment counted about 14,942 BTC of net exchange outflow on Oct 27, the largest single day in five weeks. Coins leaving exchanges is usually read as holders stepping back from selling.

The two branches

Bullish: three daily closes above $81,400 opens $82,000 to $82,500, then $84,200. ETH targets $2,400 to $2,530.
Bearish: losing $80,000 opens $78,000 and $76,000, with $75,800 as strong support. ETH loses $2,300.

Update

BTC has traded below $80,000 since the report's cutoff, so the bearish branch is the one being tested now. That puts the $76,500 short-term holder cost basis and the $75,800 support in focus.