75,688.7 to 81,160 in about 12 hours

Intermediate tier. All numbers below are BloFin public market data pulled at 10:55 AM ET, Nov 4, 2026.

The timeline in hourly candles

• 6:00 PM to 9:00 PM ET, Nov 3: BTC drifts from about 77,860 to 76,129 as early results point to Democrats taking both chambers of Congress.
• 10:00 PM ET hour: the low prints at 75,688.7. That hourly candle closes at 76,465.4.
• Overnight: a steady grind back to roughly 78,000 to 78,600.
• 9:00 AM ET hour, Nov 4: a push to 79,626.
• 10:00 AM ET hour: the high prints at 81,160.
• At 10:55 AM ET: last 80,285.6, mark 80,288.4, index 80,315.9. The 24h open was 77,750.1.

Reuters described the overnight dip as a reaction to the election outcome, and CoinDesk reported the rebound as uncertainty faded once the result was clear. Whatever the reason, the tape is what your margin sees.

Lesson 1: the short that looked smart at 10 PM

Picture a trader who shorted the 10 PM ET hourly close at 76,465.4 because the headline looked bearish. Illustrative math, ignoring fees and maintenance margin:

• At 20x, a 5% adverse move wipes the margin. 76,465.4 x 1.05 = 80,288.7. The high of 81,160 is 6.14% above entry, so this short is gone before maintenance margin even enters the picture.
• At 10x, the rough line is 76,465.4 x 1.10 = 84,111.9. The same short is underwater but still open.

Same idea, same entry, different survival. Leverage did not change whether the trader was right about the news. It changed whether they were still in the trade to find out.

Lesson 2: the low only matters at mark price

BloFin liquidates on mark price, not the last trade on the chart. Right now the two are 2.8 apart (80,288.4 vs 80,285.6), and mark sits 27.5 under index. On a calm morning that gap is tiny. During a fast hourly candle, the last-trade wick can stretch further than mark does, which is why a last-price stop and a mark-price liquidation can trigger at different moments. Check which trigger your TP/SL uses before a scheduled event, not during it.

Lesson 3: funding flipped into a real cost for longs

The current BloFin BTC-USDT funding rate is 0.022% per 8 hours, with a cap of 0.5% and a floor of -0.5%. Positive means longs pay shorts.

Worked example for 1 BTC long at mark 80,288.4:

• One settlement: 80,288.4 x 0.00022 = 17.66 USDT.
• Three settlements a day at the same rate: about 52.99 USDT.

If the rate dropped back to 0.01%, the same position would pay about 8.03 USDT per settlement. Funding is recalculated every period, so these are snapshots, not a forecast. The point is that chasing the bounce means paying to hold it while the crowd leans long.

Lesson 4: the 1H chart hides the path

The 10 PM candle opened at 76,130.2 and closed at 76,465.4. Looks mild. Inside it, price touched 75,688.7. Anyone sizing off closes instead of wicks underestimated how far the market actually went.

What this means for the next event night

Election nights, central bank decisions and big exchange incidents share a pattern: liquidity thins out, a headline lands, and price runs both ways before settling. You do not need a view on politics to survive that. You need a position that can absorb the full range.

Pre-event checklist

1. Measure the last two event-night ranges on $BTC.USDT and size so that range does not reach your liquidation line.
2. Set TP/SL trigger type deliberately (last or mark) and know why.
3. Read the live funding rate before chasing a bounce on $BTC.USDT or $ETH.USDT.
4. Compare with a faster mover like $SOL.USDT, $XRP.USDT or $DOGE.USDT before assuming BTC-sized moves.
5. Check wicks, not just closes.
6. Decide in advance whether you trade the first move or wait for the second.